More Modeling

The Fundamentals of Stored Product Entomology book cites 42 modeling studies in Table 7.3 in book. These studies model the population growth of 14 pest species and 4 natural enemy species. The models simulate environmental conditions and insect populations in farm and elevator bins, food processing plants and grain marketing system, insect damage to grain, insect resistance to insecticides and pest management using aeration, fumigation, host plant resistance and residual insecticides. The following 75 references add models for the stored product species, Acarus siro, Cheyletus eruditus, Corcyra cephalonica and Plodia interpunctella, Trogoderma granarium, and aflatoxin production by molds, rat populations and use of models in cereal food chain. Models for the effect of high and low temperatures on insect survival and hermetic storage on germination, and additional models for environmental conditions during storage, aeration and fumigation are reported in the following references.

Abalone, R., A. Gaston, R. Bartosik, L. Cardoso, and J. Rodriguez 2011. Gas concentration in the interstitial atmosphere of a wheat silo-bag. Part I: Model development and validation. J. Stored Prod. Res. 47: 268-275.

Abalone, R., A. Gaston, R. Bartosik, L. Cardoso, and J. Rodriguez. 2011. Gas concentration in the interstitial atmosphere of a wheat silo-bag. Part II: Model sensitivity and effect of grain storage conditions. J. Stored Prod. Res. 47:276-283.

Abe, T., and M. A. Basunia. 1996. Simulation of temperature and moisture changes during storage of rough rice in cylindrical bins owing to weather variability. Journal of Agricultural and Engineering Research 65:223-233.

Ahmad, M., S. S. Shaukat, and A. Ahmad. 1990. Population studies of four stored grain insect pest species in relation to wheat storage losses and a mathematical model for grain damage. Sarhad-Journal-of-Agriculture 6:601-606.

Alagusundaram, K., D.S. Jayas, W.E. Muir, N.D.G. White and R.N. Sinha. 1996. Finite element model of three-dimensional carbon dioxide movement in grain bins. Can. Agric. Eng. 38:75-82.

Alagusundaram, K. et al. 1990. Finite difference model of three-dimensional heat transfer in grain bins. Can. Agric. Eng. 32:315-321.

Alagusundaram, K., D. S. Jayas, N. D. G. White, and W. E. Muir. 1990. Three-Dimensional, Finite Element, Heat Tranfer Model of Temperature Distribution in Grain Storage Bins. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers 33:577-584.

Ambatipudi, V., Murthy J. Y., Maier, D.E. 2006. Detailed and reduced form modeling of structural fumigation in food processing facilities. In Lorini, I.; Bacaltchuk, B.; Beckel, H.; Deckers, D.; Sundfeld, E.; dos Santos, J.P.; Biagi, J.D.; Celaro, J.C.; Faroni, L.R.D’A.; Bortolini, L.de O.F.; Sartori, M.R.; Elias, M.C.; Guedes, R.N.C.; da Fonseca, R.G.; Scusse, V.M. eds. Proceedings of the 9th International Working Conference on Stored-Product Protection, ABRAPOS, Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil, 15-18 October 2006. (pp. 586-594). Brazilian Post-Harvest Association (ABRAPOS).

Arthur, F. H., J. E. Throne, D. E. Maier, and M. D. Montross. 1998. Feasibility of aeration for management of Maize Weevil populations in corn stored in the Southern United States: model simulations based on recorded weather data. Am. Entomol. 118-123.

Arthur, F. H., Y. Yang, and L. T. Wilson. 2011. Use of a Web-Based Model for Aeration Management in Stored Rough Rice. J. Econ. Entomol. 104:702-708.

Bala, B. K. e. a. 1990. Simulation of temperature changes during storage of wheat and rough rice. J. Stored Prod. Res. 26:1-6.

Banks, H. J. e. a. 1986. Influence of transportation on gas loss from freight containers under fumigation. Part II: descriptive model. Pestic. Sci. 17:221-229.

Banks, H. J., and R. A. Longstaff. 1987. Simulation of temperature fluctuations near the surface of grain bulks. J. Stored Prod. Res. 23:21-30.

Barreto, Alien Arias, Abalone, R. and Gastón, A. 2016. Computer simulation of gas concentration in the interstitial atmosphere of a soybean (Glycine max) silo bag for typical agricultural areas of Argentina. Pp. 291–296. In: Navarro S, Jayas DS, Alagusundaram K, (Eds.) Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Controlled Atmosphere and Fumigation in Stored Products. 6-11 November 2016 New Delhi, India.

Barreto, Alien Arias, Abalone, R. and Gastón, A. 2016. Prediction of insect development in a wheat (Triticum aestivum) silo-bag by computer simulation. p. 316–323. In: Navarro S, Jayas DS, Alagusundaram K, (Eds.) Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Controlled Atmosphere and Fumigation in Stored Products, 6-11 November 2016 New Delhi, India CAF Permanent Committee Secretariat, Winninpeg, Canada. (Rhyzopertha dominica, Sitophilus oryzae)

Basunia, M. A., B. K. Bala, and T. Abe. 1996. Application of finite element method for the simulation of temperature distribution during storage of rough rice in cylindrical bin. AMA Agric Mech Asia Afr Lat Am 27:33-40.

Bell, R. A. 1978. Simulation of temperatures in grain bins. Australian National University.

Benigno, E. A. e. a. 1983. RATPOP: A population model of the ricefield rat (Rattus rattus mindanensis mearns). Philippine Agriculturist 66:379-396.

Ben-Lalli, A., J. Meot, A. Collignan, and P. Bohuon. 2011. Modelling heat-disinfestation of dried fruits on “biological model” larvae Ephestia kuehniella (Zeller). Food Res. Int. 44:156-166.

Boina, D. R., B. Subramanyam, and S. Alavi. 2008. Dynamic model for predicting survival of mature larvae of Tribolium confusum during facility heat treatments. J. Econ. Entomol. 101:989-997.

Brannen, J. P. 1975. A Population Model For Dermestid Beetle Survival Under Starvation And Cannibalism. Journal of Theoretical Biology 49: 179–189. Anthrenus flavipes, Dermestes maculatus

Broglia, T. 2007. Elaborazione di modelli previsionali per lo sviluppo di Corcyra cephalonica (Stainton) (Lepidoptera Pyralidae) (Development of predictive models for the development of Corcyra cephalonica (Stainton) (Lepidoptera Pyralidae)) Degree Thesis Universita degli Studi di Milano. 94 p.

Campbell, A.; Sinha, R.N. 1990. Analysis and simulation modelling of population dynamics and bioenergetics of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) in stored wheat. Res. Popul. Ecol. 32: 235–254.

Carvalho, Otilia, Maria N. Charalambides, Ilija Djekić, Christos Athanassiou, Serafim Bakalis, Jose Benedito, Aurelien Briffaz, Cristina Castañé, Guy Della Valle, Isabel Maria Nunes de Sousa,Ferruh Erdogdu, Aberham Hailu Feyissa, Nickolas G. Kavallieratos, Alexandros Koulouris, Milica Pojic, Anabela Raymundo, Jordi Riudavets, Fabrizio Sarghini, Pasquale Trematerra and Alberto Tonda 2021. Modelling processes and products in the cereal chain. Foods 10(1), 82.

Casado, M. R., D. J. Parsons, R. M. Weightman, N. Magan, and S. Origgi. 2009. Modelling a two-dimensional spatial distribution of mycotoxin concentration in bulk commodities to design effective and efficient sample selection strategies. Food Addit. Contam. 26: 1298-1305.

Chauhan, Y. S., G. C. Wright, and N. C. Rachaputi. 2008. Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 48:358-366.

Chayaprasert, W., D. E. Maier, K. E. Ileleji, and J. Y. Murthy. 2008. Development and validation of computational fluid dynamics models for precision structural fumigation. J. Stored Prod. Res. 44:11-20.

Clift, A. D., J. H. Johnston, and G. G. White. 1989. Modelling grain insect populations on farms in Eastern Australia. In XVIII International Congress of Entomology, July 3-9, 1988, Vancouver, Canada.

Fontenot, E. A., F. H. Arthur, J. R. Nechols, and J. E. Throne. 2012. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hubner to temperature and diet. Journal of Pest Science 85:163-167.

Flinn, P. W., T. W. Phillips, D. Hagstrum, F. Arthur and J. Throne. 2001. Modeling the effects of insect stage and grain temperature on phosphine-induced mortality for Rhyzopertha dominica. p. 531-539. In Donahaye, E. J., S. Navarro, and J. Leesch [eds.]. Proceedings of the InternationalConference on Controlled Atmosphere and Fumigation in Stored Products, Executive Printing Services, Clovis, California.

Flinn, P. W., J. F. Campbell, J. E. Throne, and B. Subramanyam. 2010. Simulation model of the red flour beetle in flour mills, pp. 953-955. In M. O. Carvalho, P. G. Fields, C. S. Adler, F. H. Arthur, C. G. Athanassiou, J. F. Campbell, F. Fleurat-Lessard, P. W. Flinn, R. J. Hodges, A. A. Isikber, S. Navarro, R. T. Noyes, J. Riudavets, K. K. Sinha, G. R. Thorpe, B. H. Timlick, P. Trematerra and N. D. G. White (eds.), Proceedings of the 10th International Working Conference on Stored Product Protection, 27 June-2 July 2010, Estoril, Portugal. Julius Kühn-Institut, Berlin, Germany.

Freer, M. W. E. A. 1990. Modeling temperature and moisture content changes in bunker-stored rice. Transactions American Society of Agricultural Engineers 33: 211-220.

Gunarto, A. 1990. Simulation model for the population growth of Sitophilus oryzae L. and grain damage in rice storage. MS thesis, Bogor Agric. Univ., Bogor, Indonesia

Hossain, Mohammad Afzal, M. A. Awal, and M. R. Ali. 2020. Prediction of Paddy Germination Stored in Different Technologies Using Artificial Neural Network. International Journal of Statistical Sciences 20(2): 267-276.

Hutchinson, J. M. S., J. F. Campbell, M. D. Toews, T. J. Vought Jr., and S. B. . Ramaswamy. 2011. Designing a Local-Scale Microsimulation of Lesser Grain Borer Population Dynamics and Movements, pp. 207-232. In S. A. Clay (ed.), GIS Applications in Agriculture: Invasive Species, vol. 3. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton, Florida.

Iguaz a et al. 2003. Modelling Effective Moisture Difusivity of Rough Rice (Lido Cultivar) at Low Drying Temperatures. Journal of Food Engineering 59(2–3): 253-58.

Iguaz A, C Arroqui, A Esnoz and P Vı́rseda. 2004. Modelling and Simulation of Heat Transfer in Stored Rough Rice with Aeration. Biosystems Engineering 89(1): 69-77.

Jia, C., D. Sun, and C. Cao. 2000. Mathematical simulation of temperature fields in a stored grain bin due to internal heat generation. J. Food Eng. 43:227-233.

Jia, C., D. Sun, and C. Cao. 2001. Computer simulation of temperature changes in a wheat storage bin. J. Stored Prod. Res. 37:165-177.

Jian, F. 2021. A novel model to quantify ages of organisms and predict development time distribution of their growth stages. Ecol. Model. 440, 109391.

Jian, F.; Jayas, D.S.; White, N.D.G. 2004. An ecosystem model to simulate insect distribution in stored grain bins. In Proceedings of the ASAE/CSAE Annual International Meeting, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 1–4 August 2004; pp. 1–11.

Jian, F., D. S. Jayas, N. D. G. White and P. G. Fields. 2007. A distributed-delay model to predict ageing and survival rates of adults of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae) in granaries filled with wheat. Ecol. Model. 200: 412-420.

Jian, F., Jayas, D.S., White, N.D.G. and Smith, E.A. 2007. Two-dimensional diffusion of Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae) populations in stored wheat under constant environmental conditions. J. Stored Prod. Res. 43: 342–348.

Jian, F., D. S. Jayas, N. D. G. White and E. A. Smith. 2008. Numerical analysis and parameter estimation technique for insect population redistribution models. Ecol. Model. 211: 47-56.

Jian, F., D. S. Jayas, P. G. Fields, and A. Y. Abdelghany. 2010. Development and comparison of two models to predict survival rates of young larvae of Stegobium paniceum (L.) (Coleoptera: Anobiidae) under heat treated temperatures, pp. 678-687. In M. O. Carvalho, P. G. Fields, C. S. Adler, F. H. Arthur, C. G. Athanassiou, J. F. Campbell, F. Fleurat-Lessard, P. W. Flinn, R. J. Hodges, A. A. Isikber, S. Navarro, R. T. Noyes, J. Riudavets, K. K. Sinha, G. R. Thorpe, B. H. Timlick, P. Trematerra and N. D. G. White (eds.), Proceedings of the 10th International Working Conference on Stored Product Protection, 27 June-2 July 2010, Estoril, Portugal. Julius Kühn-Institut, Berlin, Germany.

Jian, F., B. Subramanyam, D. S. Jayas, and N. D. G. White. 2013. Models to predict mortality of Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) exposed to elevated temperatures during structural heat treatment. J. Econ. Entomol. 106:2247-2258.

Kaliyan, N., M. A. Carrillo, R. V. Morey, W. F. Wilcke and S. A. Kellis. 2007. Mortality of Indianmeal moth (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) populations under fluctuating low temperatures: model development and validation. Environ. Entomol. 36: 1318-1327.

Kaliyan, N., R. V. Morey, W. F. Wilcke, M. A. Carrillo, and C. A. Cannon. 2007. Low-temperature aeration to control Indianmeal moth, Plodia interpunctella (Hübner), in stored grain in twelve locations in the United States: a simulation study. J. Stored Prod. Res. 43:177-192.

Kasambala, T., and P. Chinwada. 2011. Modelling the occurrence of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) in Southern Malawi . Journal of Stored Products and Postharvest Research 2:72-78.

Khankari, K., R. Morey, and S. Patankar. 1994. Mathematical-model for moisture diffusion in stored grain due to temperature-gradients. Trans. ASAE 37:1591-1604.

Khankari, K., R. Morey, and S. Patankar. 1995. Application of a numerical model for prediction of moisture migration in stored grain. Trans. ASAE 38:1789-1804.

Khankari, K., S. Patankar, and R. Morey. 1995. A mathematical model for natural convection moisture migration in stored grain. Trans. ASAE 38:1777-1787.

Kuzmanov, D. and N. Dimitrov. 2009. Forecasting the necessity of grain fumigation during storage. Czech J. Food Sci. 3: 210-215.

Kuzmanov, Dimitar and Nikolay Dimitrov. 2009. Insect population growth in stored freshly harvested wheat (Coleoptera: Curculionidae & Silvanidae). Entomologische Zeitschrift mit Insekten-Börse, Stuttgart 119(5): 219-222.

Lawrence, J., and D. E. Maier. 2011. Development and validation of a model to predict air temperatures and humidities in the headspace of partially filled stored grain silos. Transactions of the Asabe 54:1809-1817.

Lawrence, J., D. E. Maier, J. Hardin, and C. L. Jones. 2012. Development and validation of a headspace model for a stored grain silo filled to its eave. J. Stored Prod. Res. 49:176-183.

Limonta, L., D. P. Locatelli, T. Broglia and J. Baumgärtner. 2009. Cohort development models for integrated Corcyra cephalonica (Stainton) population management. Bollettino di Zoologia Agraria e di Bachicoltura (Ser. II) 41: 215-226.

Lo, K. M. e. a. 1975. Simulation of temperature and moisture changes in wheat storage due to weather variability. J. Agric. Eng. Res. 20:47-53.

Longstaff, R. A., and H. J. Banks. 1987. Simulation of temperature fluctuations near the surface of grain bulks. J. Stored Prod. Res. 23:21-30.

Mason, P. L. 1996. Population biology of the saw-toothed grain beetle, Oryzaephilus surinamensis (Coleoptera: Silvanidae), in an experimental model of a fabric treatment. Bulletin of entomological research 86(4): 377-385.

Montross, M., D. Maier, and K. Haghighi. 2002. Development of a finite-element stored grain ecosystem model. Trans. ASAE 45:1455-1464.

Montross, M., D. Maier, and K. Haghighi. 2002. Validation of a finite-element stored grain ecosystem model. Trans. ASAE 45:1465-1474.

Na, Ja Hyun, Mun Il Ryoo, and Jin Sone. 2000. A Phenology Model for Seasonal Occurrence of Plodia interpunctella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Stored Product Storage. Journal of Asia-Pacific Entomology 2(3): 77-81.

Pekar, S., and E. Zd’arkova. 2004. A model of the biological control of Acarus siro by Cheyletus eruditus (Acari : Acaridae, Cheyletidae) on grain. Journal of Pest Science 77:1-10.

Rajendran, Vignesh, Fuji Jian, Paul G Fields and Digvir S Jayas 2022. Mathematical Modeling of Population Dynamics of Trogoderma granarium (Coleoptera: Dermistidae). Journal of Economic Entomology 115(1): 353–364

Silva, A. A. L. da; Faroni, L. R. D. A.; Guedes, R. N. C.; Martins, J. H. and Pimentel, M. A. G. 2003. Modelagem das perdas causadas por Sitophilus zeamais e Rhyzopertha dominica em trigo armazenado. (Modeling of the losses caused by Sitophilus zeamais and Rhyzopertha dominica in stored wheat) Revista Brasileira Engenharia Agrícola Ambiental, 7: 292-296,

Silva, A. A. L. da, Faroni, L. R. D. A., Guedes, R. N. C., Martins, J. H. and Pimentel, M. A. G. 2006. Modelos analíticos do crescimento populacional de Sitophilus zeamais em trigo armazenado. (Analytical models of population growth of Sitophilus zeamais in stored wheat) Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, 10: 155-161.

Shi, Mingren, Patrick J. Collins, James Ridsdill-Smith, Michael Renton 2012. Individual-based modelling of the efficacy of fumigation tactics to control lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica) in stored grain. Journal of Stored Products Research 51: 23-32.

Shi, M., M. Renton, J. Ridsdill-Smith, and P. J. Collins. 2012. Constructing a new individual-based model of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica): do we need to include two loci rather than one? J. Pest Sci. 85:451-468.

Shi, M., and M. Renton. 2013. Modelling mortality of a stored grain insect pest with fumigation: probit, logistic or Cauchy model? Math. Biosci. 243:137-146.

Thorne, J.; G. Fulford, A. Ridley, D. Schlipalius, P. Collin, 2010. Life stage and resistance effects in modeling phosphine fumigation of Rhyzopertha dominica (F.), p. 438–445. In: Proc. 10th Int. Working Conf. Stored Product Protection, Lisbon, Julius Kuhn Publ., Berlin, Germany.

Throne, J. E., and R. T. Arbogast. 2010. A Computer model for simulating population development of the Indianmeal Moth (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Stored Corn. J. Econ. Entomol. 103:1503-1507.

Tricault, Y., J. Huignard, and J. Pierre. 1999. Modelisation de la dynamique de populations d’un ravageur de denrées stockées: Estimation des dégâts et de l’impact potentiel des auxiliaires naturels. (Modelling the population dynamics of a stored-product pest: assessing damages and the potential impact of natural enemies.) Annales de la Société entomologique de France (Ann. Soc. Entomol. Fr.) 35:434-439.

Wilson, M. 1999. A model for predicting mould growth and subsequent heat generation in bulk stored grain. J. Stored Prod. Res. 35:1-13.

Woods, S. M., N. D. G. White and R. N. Sinha. 1997. Simulation of generation times of the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus, in farm-stored grain in the Canadian prairies, 1952-1990. Res. Popul. Ecol. 39: 47-56.